Formula 1’s Canadian Grand Prix risks becoming an “elimination race” if Sunday’s rainy weather is expected to continue until race time.
What has been described as a perfect storm could cause further confusion and curveballs in tire selection if the bad weather persists.
The current forecast calls for rain to arrive at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve early Sunday morning, with continued fog and light rain throughout the morning and early afternoon.
The intensity of the rain will ease as race time approaches, but temperatures are expected to be as low as 11 degrees Celsius, which means that fog will accumulate and the track surface will not dry out.
This refers to conditions that drivers, already aware of the challenges of racing current power units in the wet, believe will be extremely difficult.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up being a bit of an elimination race, but I could be wrong,” said Alpine’s Pierre Gasly, who tested Pirelli’s wet tires after the Miami Grand Prix.
“It’s difficult to warm up the tires on this dry course, so I think it’s going to be very difficult in the rain.”
Red Bull were one of two teams to run in the rain during the Barcelona pre-season test, so Max Verstappen, who has experience running his 2026 car in the wet, is expected to have major difficulties.
“Even with slicks, it’s hard to switch it on at the right time,” he says. “So with wet tires, I think it’s going to be a big struggle for all of us to make it work.”
The FIA could face a challenge on how to manage the situation, as keeping drivers behind the safety car for long periods of time to reduce the chance of an incident could make things worse for everyone in terms of tire cooling.
Verstappen said: “When an incident happens, you don’t want a safety car, at least you want VSC or something to get a little more speed elsewhere. But that would be difficult.”
Tire curve ball
The situation is so extreme that, even on wet roads, wet tires could even be a better option than F1’s long-derided intermediate tyres.
Over the years, Inter has been the obvious choice for rain-hit races, but there are only rare cases where extreme rain is better.
This is mainly because when conditions get too bad to improve the wet, track runs are often halted due to very poor visibility, so there is little incentive to use the wet.
It was often said that wet tires were effectively just ‘safety car tires’.
But the Canadian Grand Prix was able to buck that trend, with a number of circumstances converging that could potentially keep drivers out of intermediate races due to the risk of drivers being out of their operating temperature range.
This is due to the dual effects of track layout and colder-than-usual weather conditions.
The layout of the Gilles Villeneuve circuit is very low energy, with no high speed or long corners that generate heat in the rubber. The grip on the surface is also very low.
The situation is made worse by the long straights, which make it difficult to maintain temperature.
Add to this the fact that the Canadian Grand Prix was moved from its usual June date to May, which means the weather is cooler than in past events, making temperature headaches even worse.
Current tires are not designed for driving in very cold weather.
The combination of low energy and low temperatures has convinced F1 tire supplier Pirelli that wet tires could become the default choice.
Chief engineer Simone Vella said: “It’s a circuit with low temperatures and low energy, so I think it’s the perfect storm. If it rains here, things will be complicated.”
“We’ve never been in a situation like this. We’ve never designed tires for conditions like this because it can be very cold and difficult.”
Vera explains that a wet compound may be better. That’s because the deeper tread depth not only means more rubber can retain heat, but the softer compound means lower operating temperatures, making it easier to switch on.
“Wet roads will be a little less painful,” he said. “For once in the last few years, it’s possible that a wet rider could end up being faster than an intermediate rider.”
Blankets are useless
In order to make wet tires usable, it is important to raise the temperature of the wet tires, and at the recent Miami Grand Prix, where heavy rain was predicted but did not actually fall, efforts were made to improve this point by increasing the blanket temperature.
It was agreed that intermediates would be heated to 70°C and wets to 40°C to make it easier for drivers to switch on.
But Vella doesn’t think this will improve the situation in Canada, as maintaining tire temperature is more of a headache than getting tires that hot in the first place.
So even if the tires come out of the pits with even higher temperatures, things won’t get much easier in the end.
“You can raise the temperature of the blanket to 140 degrees, but once it drops and hits 50 degrees, it goes up for the first, second and third laps, but you end up with a very similar situation.
“The question is always how much energy can you generate and put into the tire and how do you generate grip and temperature?”
Additionally, “If your body temperature starts to drop and you can’t find a way to get it back up, you’re in trouble because you start to struggle and you lose your grip.”
“Basically, you can’t drive at such low temperatures. That’s why, in my opinion, wet works well here.”
Will the FIA be cautious?
All factors were considered holistically and Grand Prix Drivers’ Association director Carlos Sainz was confident the FIA would take a cautious approach to managing the race.
He urged fans to be patient as the situation unfolds, as it could mean not running races in conditions that some consider safe.
“I think all the drivers are currently supportive of how the FIA deals with the rain situation, but the FIA will be cautious in their approach,” he said.
“To the media, and maybe to the fans, please don’t be too pushy.
“It’s the first time we’re going to go check out a very cold, very difficult track with these cars, with the speed differences we’ve seen, and an inter and wet set that hasn’t been fully developed for these cars.
“Don’t be surprised if the FIA takes safety precautions.”
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