Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Game 4 Preview: Gilgeous-Alexander controls this series

This is a sentence I never thought I’d write (and may never write again), but it’s true regarding this Western Conference Finals.
A team with Victor Wembaneyama is not the team that will be forced to make the most adjustments.

At least for San Antonio, he won’t be heading into a crucial Game 4 at home. Mathematically speaking, Game 4 is not a “must win” for the Spurs, and we’ve already seen two teams in these playoffs come back from 3-1 down to win the series. Realistically, that won’t happen against Oklahoma City. Victor Wenbanyama understands that.

He said this after the Game 3 loss at home against the Spurs, where they took a 15-0 lead but ended up losing by 15 points by the time the final buzzer sounded.

Here are three things to note about Game 4. The game will be held in San Antonio on Sunday at 8pm ET. You can watch the showdown on NBC or stream it on Peacock.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander controls the series.

If you look at the aggregate stats alone, you might argue that MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is struggling in this series: scoring 26.7 points per game on just 39.1% shooting and 28.6% from 3-point range.

That’s wrong. Gilgeous-Alexander has been in control this series, and his ability to quickly read and process defenses and make the right plays has been key to the Thunder’s past two wins. The Thunder are getting the shots they want, the shots they like.

SGA has been attracting defenders by watching the Spurs bring a third defender to his side of the court (usually at the nail) to separate San Antonio’s defense and set up his teammates for big games. That was evident in Game 3, when he had 12 assists against just two turnovers, and he averaged 11 assists against 2.3 turnovers per game in the series.

Part of the problem for San Antonio is that they want to force the ball on Oklahoma City’s worst shooter, but then Alex Caruso turns around and hits eight 3-pointers in Game 1. The Spurs aren’t terrible shooters, and if you add Jaylin Williams (five 3-pointers in Game 3), Lou Dort, or anyone else on the roster, they’ll beat you.
And SGA is finding open players who have time to get their feet set and shoot in rhythm.

I think the Spurs need to find a way to take Gilgeous-Alexander out of the game, but good luck. There’s a reason he was a two-time MVP.

Other than Wenbanyama

San Antonio earned +4 points in the 39 minutes Wembaneyama played in Game 3, but lost nine minutes in a 19-point loss.
This is a trend throughout the series, with San Antonio being +21 in the 125 minutes Wembaneyama is on the court and -38 in the 29 minutes he is off.

It wasn’t much of an issue in the regular season, as the three-guard attack of Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper could go downhill and score or create opportunities for other players. But now they’re playing against the best defense in the league, and they’re doing it with two of their guards playing through injuries.

The moment Wembaneyama goes to the bench, you can see the level of the Thunder’s aggression and attack on the rim. Thunder coach Mark Dainot made sure to keep Gilgeous-Alexander on the court while Wenbangyama was off, allowing him to attack the rim without consequences (kudos to Luke Kornet).

Spurs coach Mitch Johnson doesn’t have many options — maybe go small with Carter Bryant? — But San Antonio has to find a way to not lose too much time outside of Wembang Yama. OKC isn’t a team that can win all that badly when he’s on the court, so they can get away with it.

Who is still healthy?

Too many key players are listed on the injury report for this series, but here’s the thing.

• Thunder guard Ajay Mitchell is out with a calf strain. He appeared to be injured on a play where he picked up a flagrant foul trying to stop Stephon Castle’s transition bucket (Devin Vassell then stepped in and both he and Mitchell picked up technical fouls).
• Thunder forward Jaylen Williams is officially questionable for Game 4 due to a left hamstring issue. He did not play in Game 3, but it would be amazing to see him return so quickly.
– San Antonio had no players listed on Sunday’s injury report.
Spurs coach Johnson said he expects both Fox and Harper to be “ready to play” in Game 4.