Today begins the weekend with 15 MLB games to choose from. Find out where the smart money is leaning for the three matchups with the VSiN MLB Betting Split, updated every five minutes and brought directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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The Orioles (22-29) won the series opener last night, 7-4, to emerge as the -130 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Tigers (20-32) will send out left-hander Framber Valdez (2-3, 4.58 ERA), while the Orioles will bring in right-hander Brandon Young (3-1, 4.25 ERA).
This line almost opened with a pick-em, with odds of about -110 for both teams.
The Sharps jumped on the Orioles at home with a coin toss price, pushing Baltimore from -110 to -120, reaching -125 in some shops.
At DraftKings, Baltimore receives 55% of moneyline bets and 75% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Orioles receive 80% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books show a “lower stakes, higher dollars” wagering split that favors the Orioles, especially the Las Vegas pros.
The Orioles have a betting system and correlation betting value as non-district championship favorites with fewer total games played (8), benefiting “better” teams who are historically expected to win due to their lack of familiarity and expected lower amount of points.
Valdez posted a 7.98 ERA (all losses) in three starts in May, allowing 13 earned runs in 14.2 innings pitched.
Young, on the other hand, posted a 4.20 ERA (all wins) in three starts in May, allowing seven earned runs over 15 innings pitched.
The Orioles are 13-12 at home. The Tigers are 7-20 on the road, the worst road record in MLB.
The White Sox (26-24) won the interleague series opener last night, 9-4, and cruised to a comfortable victory as -120 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s rematch, left-hander Brian Hudson (2-1, 1.57 ERA) will start for the White Sox, while right-hander Adrian Hauser (2-4, 5.25 ERA) will start for the Giants (20-31).
This line listed San Francisco as the -125 home favorite and Chicago as the +105 road dog.
Sharps sided with the White Sox as short dog, dropping lines away from San Francisco (-125 to -115) and toward Chicago (+105 to -105).
At DraftKings, the White Sox receive a hefty 60% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago receives 92% of moneyline bets and a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books present a “lower stakes, higher dollar” stakes split in favor of road dogs.
The White Sox have a correlated betting system value (9) in games with a high total number of games played, and the more they are expected to score, the greater the variance in scores, creating an opportunity for an upset.
Compared to San Francisco’s .290 OBP, .375 slugging percentage, and 177 runs scored, Chicago has a superior offensive power with an OBP of .323, slugging percentage of .401, and 227 runs scored.
Hauser’s ERA was 7.31 at home and 4.22 on the road.
The Twins (24-27) won last night’s series opener 8-6 to earn them as +125 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Twins will hand the ball to right-hander Taj Bradley (4-1, 2.87 ERA), while the Red Sox (22-28) will hand the ball to left-hander Giovani Moran (0-1, 2.81 ERA).
This line listed Boston as the home favorite at -115 and Minnesota as the road dog at -105.
Sharps quietly sided with the Red Sox and bounced back with a win, pushing Boston from -115 to -125, with some shops inching up to -130.
At Circa, the Red Sox win 45% of moneyline stakes and 59% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low stakes, high dollars” difference with the Desert Sages.
Boston has a betting system and correlation betting value as a non-district favorite with fewer total games played (8), which benefits “better” teams that are historically expected to win due to their lack of familiarity and expected lower amount of points.
The Red Sox had a better bullpen, with a team ERA of 3.13 (fourth best in MLB), while the Twins had a team ERA of 4.86 (fifth worst in MLB).
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