Today’s MLB Picks:
Baseball expert and handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top picks in today’s MLB. Saturday, May 23rd.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Line and Baseball Betting Show podcast. Also, check out MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and MLB YRFI Reports.
A new Opta AI MLB player prop projection is also available.
1:35 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Ryan Weathers has a 3.58 ERA and 3.62 ERA with a career-high 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings and just 2.3 walks per nine innings. Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen, who has a 3.19 ERA and allowed 1.3 home runs per nine innings, will face a Yankees lineup that leads the league in home runs and six RBIs per game. The Yankees also rank 11th in bullpen ERA at 3.48, while the Rays rank 19th at 4.33.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline -125 and 7 runs or more
Greg’s handicap: Yankees -141, total 8.3
2:20pm ET
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starting pitcher Collin Ray has a 4.98 ERA this season, but his 4.08 ERA, 1.1 home runs, and 2.7 walks allowed per nine innings indicate a positive return. He also averaged just over 2.6 runs per game against the Astros lineup in May, the lowest in the league. Astros starting pitcher Kai-Wai Teng has a 2.61 ERA, but his 3.78 ERA is concerning, especially considering he has pitched more than three innings only once this season. The problem is compounded by the Astros’ bullpen ERA of 5.70, the worst in the league.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -140
Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -171
4:05 PM ET
Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies
Guardians starting pitcher Slade Cecconi has struggled this season, posting a 5.16 ERA while allowing 1.5 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings. Phillies starting pitcher Zach Wheeler has fewer strikeouts than usual with 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings, his lowest since 2020, but still has a 1.99 ERA. Cleveland entered the series leading the American League in scoring, averaging nearly 5.3 points per game during the month of May. Both bullpens are pretty average, with the Guardians ranking 13th in bullpen ERA at 3.80 and the Phillies ranking 15th at 4.04.
Pick: Guardians vs. Phillies 7.5 runs or more
Greg’s handicap: 7.9 total
4:10pm ET
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
Mets starting pitcher Freddy Peralta had a solid 3.31 ERA, allowed one home run and had 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He will also face a Marlins lineup that entered the series ranked 28th in home runs per at-bat. Marlins starting pitcher Max Meyer is enjoying the best season of his career with a 2.35 ERA and 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings while facing a Mets lineup that ranks 23rd in scoring, allowing fewer than 4.1 runs per game.
Contender: Mets vs. Marlins within 8 points.
Greg’s handicap: 7.2 total
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starting pitcher Stephen Kolek has a 4.24 ERA, 1.6 home runs allowed and 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s backed by a Royals batting lineup that hits much better at home than on the road, ranking last in the league on the road with an average of just 3.1 RBIs per game, while ranking 12th in home runs scored with about 4.7 RBIs per game. Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby has a 3.45 ERA and 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings, but has a career-low 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and has historically struggled on the road, posting a 3.15 ERA at home compared to a 4.00 ERA on the road.
Pick: Royals Moneyline +120 and 8.5 runs or more.
Greg’s handicap: Royals +107 and 9.2 total
9:40pm ET
Athletics vs San Diego Padres
Athletics starting pitcher JT Ginn is off to a strong start this season with a 2.98 ERA and 1.1 home runs per nine innings, but his 4.02 ERA, three walks, and 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings suggest some regression may be occurring. Padres starting pitcher Lucas Giolito is making his second start of the season after giving up three runs in five innings in his season debut against the Seattle Mariners. He posted a 3.41 ERA last season with the Boston Red Sox, and entering the series the bullpen ranks seventh with a 3.32 ERA, while the Athletics’ bullpen ranks 21st with a 4.44 ERA.
Selection: Parent Moneyline -102
Greg’s handicap: Padres -146
10:10pm ET
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Rockies starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen has struggled this season with a 7.03 ERA, allowing 1.7 home runs and 3.1 walks per nine innings. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen, who has a career-low 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings and a 4.78 overall ERA, has improved significantly at home. His ERA at home has dropped to 2.70 with one home run per nine innings, but on the road he has allowed only a 7.25 ERA and 1.6 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Diamondbacks run line -1.5 +130 and under 9.5 runs.
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -1.5 -107 and Total 8.8
#Todays #MLB #Picks #Greg #Petersons #Bets #Saturday #23rd