On the morning of January 8, 2025, a red dot appeared on NASA’s resource management system fire information. It was the first sign of what would become one of the deadliest wildfires in California history, killing dozens of people and destroying thousands of homes in the Palisades. All the while, Aqua satellites orbited above, scanning the Earth and transmitting data to ground stations in Alaska and Svalbard.
this satellite Equipped with an infrared sensor that detects changes earth Because they are invisible to the human eye, they are essential for coordinating emergency responders during natural disasters. Once detected, NASA converts Aqua’s infrared data into GPS coordinates, allowing authorities to plot the extent of the fire as dots on a map. These coordinates constitute what is known as a medium-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (modis), a device for detecting fires on the Earth’s surface. This process often alerts emergency services Faster than a 911 call From the ground.
Missing data is a problem for scientists trying to explain to politicians and business leaders who decide what to do about the Earth’s climate. climate change. While the data loss is small for now, scientists say the problem will get worse over time. space debris will increase.
But Aqua is not alone. It is one of three major satellites that make up the core of the Earth Observation System (EOS), a constellation that coordinates its orbit to measure land, ocean, and atmosphere simultaneously.
Thanks to the EOS fleet, we were able to understand how aerosols affect cloud formation, map deforestation in the Amazon, and discover how phytoplankton blooms darkened Earth’s oceans. And in fact, all three moons – Aqua, Terra, and Aura – are at risk from space junk. Starting in 2005, the EOS fleet at least pivoted to avoid space debris on Earth. 32 times. According to data recorded by , this exercise may have left corrupted climate data in some of these instances. Land data product evaluation evaluation. Besides data, there is also the loss of valuable fuel.
“Even in the absence of a collision, there is an economic cost to space debris,” Andrew Bonwick, vice president of satellite insurance provider Realm Insurance, told Space.com. “Every time a satellite maneuvers to avoid a potential collision, it uses fuel, a finite and precious resource.”
“The situation is likely to get worse before it gets better,” NASA scientists said in a 2018 paper. report This is an evaluation of debris operations. The report found that the risk of collision between EOS satellites and debris in orbit is increasing.
At its peak, Aqua flew 438 miles (705 kilometers) above the Earth’s surface, scanning the globe 14 times a day in an ellipse from the North Pole to the South Pole. This satellite is located in a sun-synchronous orbit and captures light waves emitted from the earth’s surface.
During its journey, Aqua survived a battery short, a solar panel thermistor failure, and the loss of 23 solar cell strings. But thanks to careful fuel management, the satellite lasted 18 years longer than its original design.
“If we had known that the spacecraft and its equipment would last 20 years, we might have loaded it with more fuel to make it last longer,” Aqua project scientist Claire Parkinson said. 2022.
Climate satellites like Aqua are at risk from debris because they have to fly close to the planet to retrieve data. low earth orbit (LEO) has the largest amount of space junk trapped there by Earth’s planet. gravity And it moves faster than the upper atmosphere.
In 2005, the European Space Agency (ESA) was tracking approximately 16,000 pieces of debris. By 2026, that number has increased to more than 44,000, an increase of about 180%.
Most space debris is too small to be tracked, and ESA estimates that more than 1 million small pieces are missing. Even a little bit of paint can be enough to destroy a satellite.
Space junk is created when satellites break up in orbit due to collisions or anti-satellite tests such as those carried out by China and Russia. On April 28, two Russian spacecraft passed through nearby waters. Stay 10 feet (3 meters) apart from each other.
But avoiding space junk is not the main reason satellites use fuel. If left alone, Aqua will eventually veer off course. Gravity from passing mountains and ocean ridges slowly pulls the satellite out of orbit, and solar radiation changes its rotation and corrupts data.
Therefore, scientists must constantly correct the orbits of their satellites to avoid them colliding with other spacecraft or even just space junk. While it’s true that spending fuel will shorten a satellite’s lifespan, avoiding space debris is usually worth it. Most of Aqua’s fuel was used for orbit correction.
“For applications where satellites are tasked with providing detailed images of a specific area, the job may not get done, especially if image time is critical or relies on frequent revisits,” Bonwick says.
Aqua is now reaching the end of its lifespan. After nearly a quarter of a century of taking to the skies and leaving a legacy for future climate scientists, it will be halted this year. The remaining fuel, less than 66 pounds (30 kilograms), is being held in reserve until Aqua can be lowered into the atmosphere and safely burned. Until then, the satellite will continue its orbit, like a neutral car rolling down a hill.
When the power goes off in the fall, Aqua won’t have enough fuel to avoid incoming space debris. of Risk of collision For a U.S. government satellite, the odds should be 1 in 1,000, but the risk increases when it runs out of fuel.
In 2007, China destroyed one of their own satellitesmultiple satellites had to maneuver to avoid space debris, raising concerns about the possibility of space junk. Kessler syndromea domino-like chain of satellite collisions begins.
According to , four cosmic collisions have been confirmed. ESAbut only one case involves climate satellites: in 2021, debris from a Russian Zenit-2 rocket collided with China’s Yunhai-1-02 weather satellite.
ESA increases risk estimate From 2024 onwards, the risk of crashes will increase by 20%. Due to increased risk, satellites almost no insuranceThis means that NGOs and government agencies will increasingly bear the costs of threats to climate change satellites.
MethaneSAT, a satellite designed to capture methane emissions to better understand greenhouse gases, stopped transmitting data in 2025, just 15 months into its lifecycle. After increased solar activity, the satellite suddenly shut down. Investigators could not agree on the reason.
Two years earlier, London-based SatVu’s first satellite, HOTSAT-1, went into orbit for Earth observation. But just a few months after releasing the first images, the satellite’s infrared camera malfunctioned. “If that satellite hadn’t been insured, the whole company would have gone out of business,” Bonwick said. “It’s not just balance sheet protection, it’s survival.”
The MODIS fire tracking dataset is set to continue until Aqua and its partner satellite Terra are shut down. NASA responded to Space.com’s initial email, but has not yet answered specific questions about the issue, although it continues fire detection capabilities through the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), a database stored on multiple NASA satellites.
But space agencies have suffered from government budget cuts, and private companies are now filling the gap. Google is Published plans By launching a constellation of satellites dedicated to fire detection, we hope to be able to capture even smaller fires with higher resolution than ever before.
On May 4th, Aqua celebrated her 24th birthday. It will probably be the last time. It has completed more than 126,000 orbits of the Earth and has been able to publish at least 30,000 scientific publications.
The satellite left behind one of the longest single-satellite climate data records ever collected. Its contribution to climate science will be irreplaceable.
Update 5/21: Bonwick’s comments about satellite insurance that could put companies out of business were in reference to London-based SatVu’s HOTSAT-1 satellite.
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