Is the death of the “Quad” a slow death? Even with the Trump administration, there is still an important role to play.

Analysts have applied a myriad of, sometimes contradictory, labels to try to make sense of President Donald Trump’s second term. He is an isolationist and transactionalist. He’s a populist. Or, these days, neocons.

One way to understand both him and the broader context of current geopolitics is to understand the difference between structure and agency.

Trump has undoubtedly exercised that power extensively since he began his second term. But at the same time, he has been constrained by structural limitations. The Supreme Court’s decision on his Liberation Day tariffs is one example. The other is the release of the Epstein files by Congress.

Even Mr. Trump’s most ardent supporters will admit that, like his predecessors who also sought to expand executive power, he is limited by the U.S. Constitution and its provisions for three equal branches of government.

The same goes for foreign policy. Mr. Trump can denounce allies, impose tariffs, and withdraw from international institutions, but he cannot fundamentally change certain structural realities. This helps us understand how President Trump’s actions are impacting America’s alliances and partnerships.

A pivotal moment for the quad

This week, the foreign ministers of the so-called “Quad” countries – the US, Australia, Japan and India – met in New Delhi.

But the leaders of these countries have not gathered for a summit since 2024, when Joe Biden was president. India was scheduled to host the summit last year, but the summit did not take place. It’s unclear whether that will happen again this year.

This required a lot of effort. Critics say the Quad is drifting “in the direction of worthlessness” and is “on the verge of extinction.”

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Read more: Quad partnership remains silent for now due to President Trump’s tariffs and deteriorating relations between India and China

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But the structural dynamics of the Indo-Pacific remain unchanged, even as the leaders of the four countries exercise their authority in unique ways, sometimes altering the Quad’s trajectory in less ambitious directions.

China’s rapid military buildup, large-scale maritime invasions, economically destabilizing practices, wolf-and-warrior diplomacy, and violent border clashes have changed the region’s strategic calculus for the foreseeable future.

This is why the four Quad countries dramatically expanded the group’s scope and ambitions before the Trump administration took office in January 2025. Members agreed to cooperate on everything from fighting cancer to developing vaccines and strengthening cybersecurity.

At their last summit they declared:

…[the] The Quad countries have created an important and durable regional grouping that will support the Indo-Pacific for decades to come.

US-India relations deteriorate

But that doesn’t mean there weren’t any challenges.

No issue poses more of a problem to the Quad initiative under the second Trump administration than the U.S.-India relationship.

For decades, every U.S. president has touted the importance of a strong, independent, and democratic India to U.S. interests. In their view, India served as a useful counterbalance to China in the Indo-Pacific. After all, the Trump administration was the first to revive the Quad in 2017 (the group was originally formed in 2007 but disintegrated soon after).

Trump also befriended Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his first term, calling him “one of America’s greatest, most dedicated, most loyal friends.”

However, since 2025, India-US relations have deteriorated due to the second Trump administration’s large-scale immigration crackdown, tariffs on India, tensions over India’s purchase of Russian oil, and President Trump’s growing ties with Pakistan.

And after a tense phone conversation between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi in June last year, President Trump reportedly canceled his plans to travel to India for a summit meeting.

Effective countermeasures against China

The Chinese government has opposed the Quad since its inception, accusing the four democratic member states of creating a siege, falling into a Cold War mindset and viewing China as an enemy. In response, the Chinese government said it would accelerate its own military modernization.

After the Quad disbanded in 2008, the reasons for it are still debated, but one American academic argued that:

Although the Quad collapsed, China did exactly what it said it would do if the Quad remained.

Unsurprisingly, China has continued to oppose the Quad since its realignment. China still sees the Quad as an effective countermeasure against China, just as its four members had envisioned, although it is still in its infancy.

At a foreign ministers’ meeting in India this week, Quad countries agreed to jointly build a port in Fiji, strengthen cooperation in critical minerals and expand maritime cooperation in the region.

Beijing was unimpressed. Immediately after the meeting ended, Chinese state media published an article with the headline “After Quad meeting, Beijing cracks down on exclusive factions.”

Why quads still matter

Public opinion in the four Quad countries also strongly supports cooperation. For example, a 2025 poll conducted by the Center for American Studies at the University of Sydney found that respondents were significantly more likely than not to support the Quad becoming a formal military alliance.

Australians were the most supportive (49% agreed), followed by Indians (44%), Americans (42%) and Japanese respondents (41%). Only a minority of respondents in the four countries opposed the Quad becoming a formal military alliance (7-15%). The rest either didn’t know or weren’t sure.

Cooperation among Quad members also continues to expand and deepen. Over the years, Quad countries have increased the number of military exercises, humanitarian and disaster relief operations, and maritime cooperation operations.

The individual leaders of the four countries will continue to change. And they will sometimes have serious reservations about each other. However, China’s destabilizing behavior leaves Quad members with little choice but to use their government institutions to continue to balance China’s revisionist policies.